US Fed take their show on the road and try to convince the public that current policy is helping the economy move forward. The problem is that there are often conflicting speeches, and don’t tell the true story of what has taken place.

Last night, Big Ben kicked it off and said that he is keeping a careful eye on inflation leading some to believe that rate hikes may be coming sooner than the market thinks. The problem with this view is that the metric the Fed relies on to view inflation, core CPI data, is flawed. Too much of that figure relies on housing prices, which got so inflated during the bubble that they are bound to continue to fall for some time. So we could have $150 oil, $5 gasoline, but housing prices fall 10% and there is no inflation! Doesn’t give too much confidence.