В предстоящие годы привлекательность юаня может поблекнуть. Один из факторов, сделавших юань столь привлекательным для инвесторов и компаний, это прогнозы о росте его стоимости. Поскольку Пекин в последнее десятилетие позволил своей валюте дорожать, она приблизилась к такому уровню, который некоторые экономисты называют справедливой рыночной стоимостью.

Когда юань выйдет на этот уровень, он может несколько растерять свой блеск, особенно если рост будет замедляться быстрее прогнозов.

November 17, 2014, 12:01 AM ET
Russia May Want to Upend Dollar ‘Diktat,’ But Greenback’s Still King
ByIan Talley

Russia may be trying to upend the dollar “diktat” by denominating a major oil deal with China in yuan, but Beijing’s currency is still a ways off from dethroning the greenback.

Central banks around the world, including Russia’s, still far prefer U.S. currency over any other.

To be sure, Beijing is strategically increasing the amount of international trade settled in yuan and allowing more of its currency to flow into financial markets around the world. Deutsche Bank expects cross-border trade settled in yuan to grow by around 50% this year to around 6 trillion yuan ($1 trillion). That’s 20% of the Asia giant’s trade.

Beijing wants to internationalize the yuan in part for economic reasons. It helps the economy adjust to integration with the global economy. It’s also a political goal: China wants the yuan to be one of the core currencies held by central banks around the world as part of their emergency reserves. The yuan as a “reserve currency” would be a symbol of the country’s international power.

There’s no doubt the dollar is still king, however.

International investors are buying record amounts of U.S. debt, pushing the dollar to a five-year high earlier this month. Foreign holdings of U.S. treasury securities topped a record $6 trillion in August as Europe flirts with another recession, emerging markets slow down and Japan faces a tough battle to revive long-stagnant growth.

The greenback’s share of global currency reserves has held fairly steady over the last two decades. In 1995, the dollar represented 59% of total global currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund. It rose to a high of 72% before the tech bubble burst in the early 2000s, but has hovered around 61% for four years.

Although the IMF’s data doesn’t detail all of the world’s currency reserves–largely missing $4 trillion held by the People’s Bank of China–economists says it’s an accurate proxy for the breakdown of central bank currency holdings around the globe.

Central banks don’t yet appear to be buying major amounts of China’s currency. IMF data shows reported reserves held in “other currencies,” such as the yuan, account for a total of 3% of central bank portfolios.

Trade settled in yuan has grown exponentially. By some accounts, it has edged out the amount of trade settled in euros. Still, it’s only a fraction of the amount denominated in the dollar. Even if China hits Deutsche Bank’s 6 trillion yuan target, that’s only 5% of total global exports.

More than 80% of trade was financed in dollars, however.

источник: online.wsj.com

The yuan’s sexiness may wane in the coming years.

One factor that has made it so attractive to investors and companies is an expectation of a rising value. As Beijing has allowed the currency to appreciate over the past decade, it is approaching levels that some economists say is fair market value.

Once that level is reached, the yuan’s shine may dim, especially if growth tapers off faster than many predicted.